Expected Goals
The new Advanced Stats available from this season bring a whole new insight into CHL games by measuring Expected Goals! Expected Goals estimates how many goals on average teams were expected to score from chances they created. We saw a total of 347 goals scored in 64 games on Game Days 1-4, let’s have a look at some of them closer and see if they hide any interesting facts!
The greatest offensive performance in the CHL so far has come from a Swiss team – EV Zug have scored 23 goals from 16,8 xG and are top of the scoring leaderboard. A notable mention goes to KAC Klagenfurt, ranked second on Expected Goals with an xG of 16,6.
From a defensive perspective, Red Bull Salzburg have held their opponents to only 5,6 Expected Goals during their first four games, which is the least from all teams. Could this be the key to their success, as the Austrians are still unbeaten this season?
The game with the most Expected goals was on Thursday, 2 September. Frölunda Gothenburg and BK Mladá Boleslav battled it out with a total of 7,77 xG throughout the game. It was the Swedes who ended up winning this close game 4-3, but it was entertaining to watch with so many chances created!
Expected Win
Taking into account each team’s created chances, we can estimate who is expected to win a given game and to what percentage. This is statistically computed based on hundreds of past games and results.
The result in the form of the Expected Win statistic represents what percentage of games teams won in the past with the same number of Expected Goals for and against.
The most one-sided game during the first four Game Days was Zug’s 9-3 victory against SønderjyskE Vojens. Their 5,61 xG created resulted in a 92% Expected Win which has been the highest in the CHL so far this season.
Biggest upsets
What can make Expected Win even more interesting is focusing on the biggest upsets and unexpected wins!
TPS Turku’s first game of the season isn’t a pleasant memory for them. They were more active and dominant on the shot clock, especially during the second period of the game, but two strikes from Pinguins Bremerhaven were enough for them to secure all three points and win the game 2-1.
Expected Goals stood at 3,8 for Turku versus Bremerhaven’s 1,58 – teams with a 3,8 xG usually win four out of five games, but this was not the case for Turku that night.
27 August was a hard day for dominating teams – Skellefteå AIK recorded an Expected Win of 73% but couldn’t beat HC Lugano who were effective in scoring goals and on the ice play. Just a week later, both teams lined-up against each other once again. And it was a similar story – Lugano scored important goals and brought home all three points!
The Cardiff Devils secured a big win for themselves too – in their game against Lausanne HC, they were under pressure the entire game, but an amazing performance from Mac Carruth in goal gifted the Welsh side this huge win!
Expected Points
Expected Win can be easily transformed into Expected Points. Multiplying xW by three points which are up for grabs each game, we receive how many points on average teams gained in the past while performing on the same number of Expected Goals.
On top of the Expected Points leaderboard is Klagenfurt with 9,5 xP! The Group G leaders have performed in the most dominant way in the CHL so far this season and sit among the best in defence (6,4 Expected Goals against ranks them second and only four goals conceded ties them at top spot) and offence (16,6 Expected Goals for ranks them second).
On the other hand, teams whose point total lags behind their chance creating the most are Oceláři Třinec and Turku.
While Třinec have yet to record a single point, they were expected to gain 5,25 of them! Especially Game Days 2 and 3 were hard for them – a very tight loss in Sweden and an unexpected loss against Fribourg-Gottéron cost them a better position in Group F and crucially points.
Turku have had trouble finding the back of the net so far – they scored 5,9 less goals than they were expected to. On Expected Goals, Turku are ranked last out of all 32 CHL teams this season and if they are to end the 2021/22 Group Stage on a high note, they’ll need to pick up on scoring efficiency.